Wed, October 12, 2005
Let iPod be iPod—11:07 AM
I think the new video iPod is a very stupid move for Apple. I think there will always be some psycho geek-freaks who want to have the newest thing and they'll buy one. But I think most people have no use for a video player the size of an iPod: the screen is too small, and too sensitive to glare and scratching; you can't watch an iPod while doing something else (e.g., jogging), the way you can listen to one; managing the files will be a pain. It's not that it wouldn't be fun to watch Dharma & Greg at the park, but I don't think a significant number of real people feel strongly enough about that to buy a new iPod to do it.
And, obviously I don't know anything, but I'm willing to bet that Apple's market research data is unreliable on this. If you walk through a mall and ask people if they would buy a video iPod, they'll say, "Sure! Where is it? I'll buy it right now!" Everyone expects a video iPod to come out, and they just assume they'll need it. Put those same survey respondents in front of an actual video iPod for $400 or whatever and their enthusiasm will fade pretty fast. "I already have an iPod, and I don't really watch that many videos."
Expect Apple's stock price to go insane after this announcement, which the rumor mills have been chanting about for literally years. Then, six months from now when Apple has hundreds of thousands of unsold video iPods on their hands, watch it hit the floor faster than Tara Reid at an open bar.
I agree with Josh. (Admittedly, when do I not?) To paraphrase his smart and lively post, he says we already have a screen we like watching our videos on: our home TV. Why not make it easier to watch computer-based videos there? Home theatre is a booming industry, and increasing the communication between TV, computer, and stereo plays right into Apple's long term "digital hub" concept. A video-enabled AirPort and an iTunes Video Store would be excellent, but a video iPod? Not really necessary. It has always seemed like it will be the next thing to happen, but nobody stops to think about whether it should. (Not even Apple, trying to beat their competitors to market instead of doing what they usually do – responding to what the market really needs.)
It's no accident that the way technology has evolved, we have different devices that do different things. It might be fun to dream about an all-in-one cell phone/iPod/TiVo/garage door opener/toaster. But practically, it makes a lot more sense to have each of those things separately. You can arrange them how you like; others in your household can use one while you use another; you can upgrade them separately. Who wants to buy a new iPod just because the toaster is on the fritz?
I'm very happy with my iPod, but its strength is its simplicity. It shouldn't store calendar items, contact information, or even a Solitaire game (as fun as that is). It shouldn't store photos and it damn well shouldn't store video. It's a shame, is all. Normally, Apple "gets it," but right now they're distracted by the extraordinary success of the iPod and they're failing to ignore the idiot fan chatter that demands video capacity next. Let PSP be PSP. Let iPod be iPod.
"AC" — Wed, 10/12/05 12:06pm
Huzzah!
Nail on the head. It's funny– when I first heard about it this morning I thought it might be cool, but then I realized that what excited me was not the iPod itself but the idea of selling TV shows in the music store (Lost is already available for $2). To me, that's a really huge step in terms of how we get our media. The video iPod idea is lame and useless, just like most cell phones. But I think technology is good at weeding the stupid stuff out pretty fast because people buy initially for novelty, but in the long term, only the really innovative products survive. The deal with ABC to sell episodes online is a much more innovative idea.
Bee Boy — Wed, 10/12/05 12:27pm
And hopefully that will be the idea that survives – and drives Apple towards something similar to Josh's idea. (Read his post; it's really very good.)
Hopefully the video features in iTunes will get some improvement over time, as well. I just bought For the Birds from their Pixar Store just for fun, and the interface is a hack job to fit video in amongst the music features – with many, many problems. The old Apple would get all parts of a new product up to their exacting specifications before launch, not rush to market with a half-assed interface. Bad form.
Unfortunately, it will be hard for the video iPod to die because it's not a separate vPod, it's just a new feature (yet another one) in the existing iPod. Consumers will have to buy the nano if they want a video-free iPod (not that it isn't damn cute), so any new iPod sold for the holiday rush will be tabulated as part of the public "mandate" for video-enabled iPods.
My guess: iPods will continue to sell like crazy, and people will eventually warm to the idea of buying video through iTMS – but only a tiny, tiny number will use them in conjunction and actually watch videos on their iPods.