Thu, July 22, 2004
Scarcity: not declining, approaching terminal velocity—10:34 AM
Disappearing channel scarcity [Seth's Blog via Lost Remote]
What happens, I asked, when Tivo has Java and TCP/IP and there's a million channels?
The people in the TV business can't imagine this. They can't imagine a world where there might be 20 A&E networks, or where there might be a channel just for shows on how to build a model airplane.
I disagree. I see it going the other way. If TiVo really takes hold (please God, please God, please God), I think, before too long, what you'll see is fewer channels hosting more shows on each. There will be no more need for "prime time" because you can air The West Wing at 2:00 in the afternoon (or 2:00 in the morning) and people will TiVo it and then watch it in prime time – or whenever they want to see it. The TV schedule won't be an agenda by which we plan our viewing, it'll just be a delivery system. You won't need 20 A&E's because you can pack 19 more A&E's worth of programming into the unused spaces on the current A&E. (And then some!)
Of course, this is assuming (please, God!) that "video on demand" dies the grisly, expensive death that it so deserves to die. If VOD makes it big, we won't need any channels at all.
